Odds makers are back at it again with another rare mistake here today on the run line with Colorado. A shocking 89.7% of the Rockies road wins this year have come by more than 1 run. The reds on the other hand have lost 73% of their home losses by more than 1 run. It makes a good pair for a winner with some excellent value at +105. Of course the Rockies still have to play the game but I really like this play and I'll tell you why.

Homer Bailey makes the start for the Reds he has a 6.66 ERA at home this year in limited starts. He's actually coming off a 3ER performance over 7.1 IP vs. the Padres, but again the Padres? You just can not compare them to the Rockies especially when the active Rockies are 12-19 off Bailey and that is not even counting Todd Helton who has yet to face Bailey. The Reds are 0-9 in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning record and they are 0-4 vs. RH starters which they will face here tonight in Ubaldo Jiminez.

Jiminez has been very good on the road with a 3.74ERA. He's got 5 straight road starts of 7 inning or more with a 3.50 ERA. He'll face the Reds who have been unable to hit RHP consistently. As they are batting just .192 in their last 5 and .205avg over their last 10 scoring just 3.36 runs per 9. That sounds about right for a team that is 8-22 in their last 30 as under dogs. Rockies on the other side who have struggled a bit with their bats has been mostly due to them facing LHP, but in their last 18 road games vs. a RH starter they are 15-3. They beat up Bailey the last time they saw him with 15 H over 4.2 innings and I think they'll enjoy that success here again while holding the Reds to limited runs. Take Rockies run line and enjoy your investment!

Where to find Freddy?